US more likely to see financial rebound in 2021 – Atradius
“The impact has created fallout that has harmed the US economy and consumers alike, resulting in job losses, rising unemployment and increased credit risk in key industries,” Atradius said.
Continue reading: Atradius shows solid financial results for the full year
However, the impact has been mitigated by the scale of the stimulus packages, the report said. These packages have resulted in a decrease in annual bankruptcies and a less severe economic decline than originally projected.
In addition to the Trump administration’s $ 2.3 trillion package launched in spring 2020, the Biden administration plans to launch another $ 1.4 trillion package. As a result of the incentives, US GDP declined 3.5% in 2020 – well below the 6.1% originally forecast in September. With the economic recovery expected to accelerate in the second quarter, Atradius is forecasting GDP growth of 4.2% this year. However, the US economy is still on weak foundations and the recovery depends on a successful launch of vaccines and avoidance of another major wave of infections.
There were relatively few bankruptcies in 2020, and bankruptcy filings were down 4.9% year over year, according to the report. However, Atradius cautioned that bankruptcies are historically lagging behind the economic downturn, so a spike is likely this year. Companies with limited liquidity are particularly vulnerable, Atradius said.
Many companies’ credit risk has worsened, according to the report. Atradius noted an increase in payment delays in the automotive and steel / metals sectors due to mounting pressures on cash flow, while payment delays and bankruptcies also increased in brick and mortar retail. Sub-sectors of the service industry such as hotels and catering, restaurants, bars, entertainment, travel agencies and tour operators are badly affected. Atradius forecast that the risk of default in these sectors will remain high in the first half of the year.
“The economic consequences of coronavirus have hit every market around the world without exception,” said Richard Reynolds, Head of Strategic Accounts at Atradius UK. “The good news is that positive results continue to emerge and new trading opportunities are emerging. But exporters need to protect themselves like never before. The saying ‘look before you leap’ has never been more accurate. Companies need to make sure they are equipped With accurate information and real-time insights about both their individual customers and the broader market they operate in. In this uncertain and ever changing business climate, innovation, a flexible approach and the ability to adapt are key tools in the need for a comprehensive one Risk management strategy is critical. ”