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US inventory futures lead Asia decrease, greenback positive aspects on yen By Reuters

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: People wearing protective masks during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak are reflected on an electronic board displaying Japan’s stock prices outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, Oct. 5, 2021. REUTERS / Kim Kyung-Hoon

Posted by Wayne Cole

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Asian stocks fell on Monday as global inflation fears favored commodities as a hedge against US stocks, while rising US bond yields pushed the dollar to two and a half year highs against the Japanese yen

Nasdaq futures and both were down about 0.5% in early trading as oil prices extended their bull run.

“Bond yields continue to rise, inflation expectations rise and monetary policy tightening in various forms is becoming more common,” said ANZ analysts in a press release.

“The global chip shortage will drag on well into next year and the uneven recovery will make it even more unsettling,” they said. “If you add energy shortages, the economic landscape is far more sober than the optimism that accompanied the early stages of global recovery.”

MSCI’s broadest index for Asia Pacific stocks outside of Japan lost 0.2% and Australia 0.9%. lost 0.5% after losing 2.5% last week.

Earning season starts this week and is likely to see supply disruptions and rising costs. JPMorgan (NYSE 🙂 reported on Wednesday, followed by BofA, Morgan Stanley (NYSE 🙂 and City group (NYSE 🙂 on Thursday and Goldman on Friday.

The focus will also be on US inflation and retail sales data, as well as the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting, which should confirm that a curtailment was discussed in November.

While the US payroll headlines disappointed on Friday, it was partly due to reopening problems in state and local education while employment in the private sector was firmer.

As labor shortages brought the unemployment rate down to 4.8%, investors became more concerned about the risk of wage inflation and significantly boosted government bond yields.

10-year bond yields traded at 1.61% after rising 15 basis points last week on the biggest spike of its kind since March.

Bonds sold off in Asia and Europe as well, with UK short-term yields hitting their highest level since February 2020.

BofA analysts warned that energy costs would exacerbate the global inflationary stimulus, as oil may top $ 100 a barrel due to limited supply and strong reopening demand.

The winners in such a scenario would be physical assets, real estate, commodities, volatility, cash and emerging markets, while bonds, loans and stocks would be negatively affected.

BofA recommended commodities as a hedge and known resources accounted for 20-25% of major stock indices in the UK, Australia and Canada; 20% in emerging markets; 10% in the euro zone and only 5% in the US, China and Japan.

The dollar was supported as US yields outperformed those in Germany and Japan to hit 112.27, their highest level on the yen since April 2019.

The euro hovered at $ 1.1566 after hitting $ 1.1527 last week, its lowest level since July last year. It held at 94.158, just below the recent high of 94.504.

The firmer dollar and higher yields have weighed on gold, which doesn’t offer a fixed yield, leaving it at $ 1,753 an ounce.

Oil prices are back up after rising 4% last week to their highest level in nearly seven years. [O/R]

rose 25 cents to $ 82.64 while it rose 41 cents to $ 79.76 a barrel.

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