The Dow is on observe for its greatest October in 6 years and third-quarter earnings are sturdy up to now. What might go incorrect?


A traditionally troubled month turns out to be anything but for the stock market … until now. Given the course of the last month and the start of the first full week of October, who would have thought that investors would be sitting nicely now. Dennis Gartman certainly not.

But here we are. Look at us how actor Paul Rudd might put it.

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In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is +1.09% on track for its best month since March, when it rose 6.62%, according to FactSet data.

Typically one of the weakest months of the year, the rally has brought blue chips within 1% of their record closing high on August 16 at 35,625.40. And our colleagues at Dow Jones Market Data said the index’s performance so far represents the best start to October since 2015.

The S&P 500 SPX, + 0.75% is up 1.45% from its record high at 4,536.95 and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, + 0.50%, is at 3.1% from its all-time high of September 7 at 15,374, 33.

It’s early days, with only 8% of the S&P 500 index companies reporting third quarter results so far, but according to John Butters, Senior Earnings Analyst at FactSet, at least 80% of companies are exceeding expectations for earnings and sales.

Butters says the combined growth rate (estimates and actual results) of reporting S&P 500 companies is 30%, which, if it existed, would be the rate of earnings growth in over a decade.

Additionally, the mixed net profit margin of 12.3% would be the third highest FactSet has since started tracking this metric in 2008. On June 30, the estimated net profit margin for the third quarter was 12%.

Fact set

It certainly didn’t hurt that JPMorgan Chase JPM, + 1.92%,
Goldman Sachs GS, + 3.80%,
Bank of America BAC, + 2.88%,
City group C, + 2.10%,
Wells Fargo WFC, + 6.78% and Morgan Stanley MS, + 1.12%,
Some of the country’s largest banks exceeded profit estimates, Butters said.

It’s not that the all-clear has been given to the bulls, of course, as investors still harbor agita focused on rising inflation, stagflation, the Evergrande-fueled China real estate saga and an ongoing energy crisis, among other things.

However, the rise in US stocks has defied the pull of these declining factors. Perhaps the bulls can thank investor and market forecaster Dennis Gartman for declaring the bull market dead after a particularly bad day in October.

That prediction might prove to be true, but market analyst and founder of, Sven Henrich, took the opportunity to outsmart Gartman.

See: MarketWatch and Barron’s will also gather the most influential figures in crypto on October 27 and November 3 to identify the opportunities and risks that lie in digital assets on October 27 and November 3. Sign up today.

However, the market is far from overjoyed. The Federal Reserve appears poised to reduce its monthly purchases of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

And MarketWatch’s Vivien Lou Chen wrote that stronger-than-expected US inflation data for September is pushing bond investors to consider the risk that a stagnant economy with sustained higher price rises may force the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to deliver a speech late next week that could launch the final commentary from policymakers ahead of the central bank’s monetary policy meeting on the 2nd.

Will another surge in 10-year Treasury yields TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.574%, prevent further gains in growth or technology stocks? Will the US dollar hit new highs again? Will bad corporate forecasts and steadily falling profit margins ultimately dampen sentiment on Wall Street? Even Gartman doesn’t know.

But for now the cops will ride up in October.

What’s next for US economic data this week?


  • Industrial production and capacity utilization data for September at 9:15 a.m. ET

  • National Association of Home Builders Index or October at 10 a.m.


Building permits and housing starts for September at 8:30 a.m.


Fed Beige Book at 2:00 p.m.


  • Initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m.

  • Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for October at 8:30 am

  • Existing home sales due at 10am in September

  • Early economic indicators due at 10am


A flash reading of IHS Markit’s PMIs and Manufacturing Services due at 9:45 am

Results reports to view this week


  • Johnson & Johnson JNJ, + 0.74%,

  • Procter & Gamble Co PG, + 0.26%

  • Traveler TRV, -0.67%

  • Netflix NFLX, -0.87%


  • Verizon Communications VZ, + 0.67%

  • IBM IBM, + 0.85%

  • Tesla Inc. TSLA, + 3.02%

  • Baker Hughes Co. BKR, + 0.22%

  • Biogen Inc. BIIB, -1.43%

  • United Airlines holdings UAL, + 0.19%

  • Las Vegas Sands Corp. LVS, -0.67%


  • Intel Corp. INTC, +1.04%

  • American Airlines Group Inc. AAL, +1.73%

  • Southwest Airlines Co. LUV, -2.23%

  • AT&T T, + 0.31%

  • Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. CMG, -0.53%

  • Tractor Supply Co. TSCO, -0.01%

  • Snap-on SNA, + 0.10%

  • KeyCorp. KEY, -0.82%


  • American Express Co. AXP, + 2.51%

  • Honeywell International Inc. HON, + 0.97%

  • Whirlpool Corp. WHR, + 0.99%

  • Seagate Technology Holdings STX, -0.62%

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