Purely Information for Information Sake
On March 21, 2020 I started tracking COVID – specifically the daily numbers. I took on this job for a couple of reasons: I like data, I haven’t gone anywhere in a while, but more specifically so that I can discuss it intelligently.
There are clearly discernible trends in the last seven months. “Waves”, as some call them, are clearly visible in the diagrams.
In this whitepaper, I want to provide the charts that developed from my nightly chase. No conclusions are drawn, no comments are made and no opinion is given. These are pure data for data reasons. You need to draw your own conclusions, make your own comment, and develop your own opinion.
As noted, the information used to develop these charts has been tracked and recorded since March 21, NIGHT. All information used in this tracking program comes from WorldOMeter.com, Johns Hopkins, and several state websites. Although each of these sources of information undertakes to provide correct data, neither they nor I can guarantee the information.
Since a day is not trending, these charts apply 14-day moving averages. Using a 14 day average removes the extreme peaks and valleys present in the daily count and even the peaks found in a 7 day average. If this 14 day moving average is NOT used, the description of the chart will indicate that a different method is being used.
The period recorded in these diagrams is the somewhat seven-month period between March 21 and October 31.
The only comment I will give is a description of the information graphed in the table.
Should we start? Hope you find this information interesting, if not valuable.
New cases every day
This shows the daily number of cases, again based on a 14-day moving average.
The following graphs show the daily deaths using the 14-day moving average.
Daily death rate
This shows the daily death rate. The death rate shown in this table is calculated by dividing the number of deaths on a given day by the number of new cases for that day. While this is not an accurate indication of the rolling death rate, as this graph uses the 14-day moving average of cases and deaths, it is somewhat representative of actual death rates.
It is followed by the 14-day moving recovery average.
New cases versus recoveries
The following table compares two data points: 1) the daily incidence; and 2) the daily restores. The daily new cases are represented by the blue line and the orange line tracks the recoveries. The 14-day moving averages are also used here.
The following table compares three key data points: 1) total number of cases reported; 2) total recoveries; and 3) active overall. Unlike previous charts, this chart does NOT use a 14-day moving average – this chart shows the actual daily numbers.
The blue line shows the total number of reported cases. the gray keeps track of active cases; and the orange indicates restores.
US percentage of total deaths
According to WorldOMeter, COVID has affected 216 countries and territories – really worldwide. The United States makes up approximately 4.29% of the world’s population. This graph shows the percentage of global COVID deaths in the United States.
Like the previous comparison table, this graph is NOT 14 days but shows the daily percentage from March 20th to October 31st.
Here are three charts with monthly information instead of a 14-day moving average or even a daily chart of numbers. The following charts compare new cases, new deaths, and new recoveries for the months of April through October.
Monthly new cases
Monthly new deaths
Monthly new restores
This last graph is essentially a tracker of total COVID numbers from March 21st through October 31st. This graph compares all the numbers to the US population. The applicable color codes are:
- Dark blue: US population
- Red / Orange: Total number of reported cases
- Yellow: total restores
- Gray: Active cases
- Light blue: total deaths
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