High Cash Predictions for 2022

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I was a television reporter for about 30 years, of which I had an annual ritual for about 15 years.

Every December I would take to the streets with a videographer, stop people by chance and ask them the following three questions.

  • What percentage do you think stocks will go up or down in the next year?
  • How high do you estimate the cost of a barrel of oil next year at this time?
  • How do you think property prices will develop in the coming year?

After picking up answers from average people on the sidewalk, I got answers to the same questions from Wall Street experts: the highly paid forecasters from the world’s largest financial firms.

Who do you think was right more often: people who barely knew the stock market, or people who get paid seven-digit numbers to make accurate financial forecasts?

It found that stocks, oil, and real estate experts tended to perform slightly better than the citizen average. But the key word in this sentence is “light”. Over the years there have been many answers from many amateurs that have proven to be far more accurate than those of the professionals.

This should come as no surprise. The world is a complicated place with infinite variables. Things happen all the time that nobody, even experts, could see coming. (Current example: COVID-19.)

But while there is no way of reliably predicting the future, that doesn’t stop us from trying. Me, you, and the experts on Wall Street, we can’t plan unless we can at least try to guess what’s coming.

And that’s what this week’s “Money!” Podcast is all about. We’re going to make some educated guesses about what’s in store for you and your money.

As always, my co-host will be financial journalist Miranda Marquit. Producer and new investor Aaron Freeman listens and sometimes helps. And this week we have a special guest: Joe Saul-Sehy from the legendary Stacking Benjamin podcast.

Sit back, relax, and listen to this week’s “Money!” Podcast:

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